Why a National Divorce Would Save America
As a new poll finds that half of Americans believe a second civil war is coming, it's time to talk about the solution.
It’s not hard to see that the ideological division between Americans is widening. This year alone, several issues have exemplified this.
One of the first in 2022 was the outrage surrounding the State of Florida’s Parental Rights in Education (“Don’t Say Gay”) law. At the time, the label “groomer” was applied to those wanting to teach kids about sexuality. Recently, similar arguments took place following the “Drag the kids to pride” show at a gay bar in Dallas, Texas. In response, Republican lawmakers have called to ban these performances in the presence of minors—an idea that prompted groups like Equality Texas to defend the shows.
Several other events caused an online backlash, including Christina Aguilera's performance with a strap-on at an “all-age LA Pride in the Park music festival.”
Concerning the issue of abortion, an unprecedented leak of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson draft decision revealed that the court is likely to overturn the Roe and Casey rulings. And though the public still awaits an official release, states have already passed outright legalization of and bans on abortion.
Following the leak, pro-abortion protesters have illegally demonstrated outside the homes of Supreme Court justices; a man was even arrested outside of Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s house and charged with attempted murder. He told police that he was angered by the upcoming court ruling and the Uvalde school shooting. This is all taking place as abortion activists attack and threaten pro-life pregnancy centers.
And with both gun control and gun proliferation also being discussed after recent shootings, the Biden Administration and Congress have been proposing firearms restrictions. 10 Senate Republicans joined Democrats in supporting gun proposals that would promote red flag laws and make background checks more stringent for buyers under 21. At the same time, several states have been passing permitless carry laws while others, such as Washington, have restricted firearm ownership.
The Data
At this point, nearly half of Americans believe a civil war is coming.
An SPLC poll released on June 1 shows that 44% of Americans agree that the country “seems headed toward a civil war in the near future.”
And a recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that:
A majority of Republicans (52%) also say it’s likely that “there will be a civil war in the United States in [their] lifetime”; half of independents (50%) and a plurality of Democrats (46%) agree. In each group, fewer than 4 in 10 say another civil war is unlikely.
At the same time, support for secession has been high.
A June 2021 survey conducted by Bright Line Watch found that overall, 37% of Americans express a willingness to secede from the United States.
And a September 2021 poll from the UVA Center for Politics found that 52% of Trump and 41% of Biden voters “at least somewhat agree that it’s time to split the country, favoring blue/red states seceding from the union.”
A Separation is Needed
As Michael Malice puts it, “[t]he United States of America has spent very few years truly unified.” With the prominent cultures moving further apart, it will do people more harm to remain under one set of rules. There is no reconciliation.
Conservatism and progressivism are also at odds when it comes to expanding democracy in America. Since early 2021, Democrats have tried to pass the Freedom to Vote Act to overhaul elections, end the Senate filibuster, grant D.C. statehood, and pack the Supreme Court. Calls to end the Electoral College and apportion U.S. Senators based on the population of states (or abolish it altogether) have also made their way to the mainstream.
Between the growing federal government and the push to further empower the majority, I believe that it’s in the best interest of conservatives to break up the federal government rather than try to “fix” it with a piece of paper.
Despite all of this, there’s pushback on the idea. Many people, especially when first considering it, assert that China and neighboring countries of the U.S. would take over or that a war would ensue between factions.
Author James Lindsay rejected the prospect, claiming that it’s what “a Communist movement would want” and that:
But Matthew Arostegui lays out the basics of how this process could easily be peaceful in his recent Mises Institute contribution “It’s Beyond Time for a National Divorce.”
The formation of mutual defense agreements, a discussion on how federal property and liabilities are split, and the setting of new borders can all be done without warfare. Free trade agreements can also be formed to prevent any negative economic impacts. And with self-interest in mind, Americans would be disincentivized from going to war with one another. If anything, it seems more likely that there will be political violence if the nation remains under the occupation of D.C.
Decentralization is the path to peace.
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